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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-18 19:42:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
653 ABPZ20 KNHC 181742 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad and elongated area of low pressure extending from near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula southwestward for a few hundred miles continues to produce widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear conducive for greater organization, the large size of the system and interaction with land should inhibit the development potential of this disturbance. However, this system could still become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves near Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California. Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce very heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur and other parts of northwestern mainland Mexico over the next several days. The risk of mudlslides and flash flooding may increase as the system tracks northward into northwestern Mexico through Thursday. Interests in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Another area of weak low pressure within an elongated trough is located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system over the next several days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Carbin/Blake
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