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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-10-13 19:49:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 131749 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 13 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A small, well-defined low pressure system located more than 100 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near and just west of the center. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for development of a tropical depression during the next few days while the disturbance moves moves slowly westward to west-northwestward parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. However, only a slight deviation to the right or north of the expected track would bring the small low and its heavy rains closer to or even inland along the southwestern coast of Mexico, which would inhibit further development. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of this system as well as products issued by the Mexican Meteorological Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A low pressure area is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south of the southeastern coast of Mexico around the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development of the system while it moves generally westward, well offshore the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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