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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-07-04 19:43:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 041743 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression One-E, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression One-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression One-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression One-E Graphics
2024-07-04 16:50:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2024 14:50:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2024 14:50:24 GMT
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-07-04 16:50:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Jul 04 2024 312 WTPZ41 KNHC 041449 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 900 AM CST Thu Jul 04 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized over the past 12-18 hours in association with the small area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring for the past several days. There have been no recent scatterometer or passive microwave passes to assess the low-level circulation of the system. However, the persistence of the convection and the current satellite structure suggest a well-defined surface circulation has likely formed underneath the colder cloud tops. It is determined that the first tropical depression of the eastern Pacific season has formed. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB. The center position of the depression is uncertain based on the lack of data, but the initial estimated motion is northwest (325/8 kt). The models agree that this motion will continue into tonight, followed by a westward turn on Friday within the low-level flow. With warm SSTs and relatively low shear today, it is possible that the system could briefly strengthen into a tropical storm, though not explicitly forecast. The tropical cyclone will move across the 26C isotherm during the next 24-36 h, and the cooler waters and drier mid-level environment thereafter should induce a weakening trend. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery suggest convection is likely to collapse on Friday, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night and dissipate later this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.0N 105.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.7N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 17.8N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 17.5N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 17.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics