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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-17 07:01:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 170501 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 23
2024-09-17 04:38:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170238 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 Gordon has become a little better organized this evening, with convection intensifying around the center-- a marked improvement from 24 hours ago. A pair of scatterometer passes from 00-01 UTC showed believable maximum winds of 25-30 kt, and 30 kt is chosen out of continuity from the last advisory. The depression has been creeping westward recently, estimated at about 3 kt. As mid-level high pressure builds to the northeast of the cyclone, the tropical cyclone should turn northward on Tuesday and move faster to the north-northeast for the next few days. A frontal wave currently seen about 10 degrees north of Gordon should also cause the cyclone to accelerate midweek as Gordon moves around that feature. The biggest change to the guidance this evening is that most are a bit faster, so the latest NHC prediction is trended in that way. Modest increases in low- to mid-level moisture around Gordon are shown in the model fields during the next couple of days. In combination with generally low shear during that time, these factors suggest that Gordon will be primed for a comeback, and the intensity guidance generally calls for it to become a tropical storm again around midweek. The low-shear conditions should last through late week, so the NHC forecast is nudged upward from 2-4 days, a touch below the model consensus. The shear could get rather prohibitive by day 5 so the intensity forecast is leveled off then, but considerable uncertainty exists at that time frame, with model guidance ranging from a depression to a category 2 hurricane. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 19.0N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 19.9N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 20.8N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 22.3N 47.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 24.2N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 25.8N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 27.5N 44.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 29.5N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Gordon Graphics
2024-09-17 04:37:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 02:37:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 02:37:26 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics