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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-03 13:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 031131 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Oct 3 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern Mexico. Western Portion of the East Pacific: A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited development is possible while the low moves slowly northward or north-northeastward during the next couple of days. Atmospheric conditions should become less conducive and prevent further development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter, some slow development is possible while the system drifts northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Graphics
2024-10-03 10:49:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:49:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 09:34:45 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-10-03 10:48:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030848 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 The depression still has a disheveled satellite appearance, with a few clusters of deep convection but no clear signs of improved organization since the previous advisory. This is consistent with the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates (T2.0/30-kt), and the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The center position of the system is very uncertain given the lack of recent microwave or scatterometer data. Based on recent fixes, satellite trends, and earlier scatterometer data, the center has been nudged slightly north and east of previous estimates. A partial scatterometer pass shows the depression is likely interacting with a larger trough that extends northward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The uncertain initial motion of the system is northeastward at 2 kt. In general, the global models show a northeastward to northward motion through Friday while the system approaches and moves across the coast of southern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Once again, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward based on the latest guidance. But, the forecast still might require future adjustments if it is determined that the center is located farther east than currently estimated. Significant intensification appears unlikely given the broad, disorganized convective structure of the depression and continued northeasterly shear over the system. However, the warm SSTs and moist environment in which it is embedded could allow for the depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Mexico, and this is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast. Regardless, the primary threat remains heavy rainfall that will continue over portions of southern Mexico for the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 14.5N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 15.1N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 16.1N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 17.5N 95.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics