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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-05-25 04:47:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250247 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 Amanda has continued to rapidly intensify over the past few hours, with the cloud pattern now featuring a ring of very cold cloud tops surrounding an eye that has quickly cleared out and warmed in the last several infrared images. The latest Dvorak satellite estimates include a T5.5/102 kt from SAB at 00Z, a T6.0/115 kt from a special 02Z TAFB classification, and 92 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT at 0200Z. Based on a blend of these, the initial intensity has been set to 100 kt, and this could be conservative given the trends seen in the latest infrared images. Additional intensification appears likely over the next 12 to 24 hours. The NHC forecast in the short term is above all of the guidance, but is closest to the FSU Superensemble. By 36 hours, steady weakening is expected to begin as Amanda encounters increasing shear ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level trough and SSTs cool along the forecast track. The NHC forecast late in the period is close to the intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 295/04. Amanda is expected to turn northwestward by 24 hours and northward by 48 hours as the mid-level ridge centered over Mexico weakens. After that time, a continued slow northward motion is expected as a weakening Amanda moves between a re-building ridge to the east and a mid/upper-level trough approaching from the west. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and remains along the east side of the track guidance envelope. At days 4 and 5 the NHC track is close to the FSU Superensemble. The operational intensity estimate of Amanda at 00Z was less than 100 kt. Therefore, this makes Amanda the second earliest major hurricane on record in the eastern North Pacific basin, behind only Hurricane Bud of 2012. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 11.6N 110.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 11.8N 111.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 12.3N 111.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 12.9N 111.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 13.8N 111.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 15.0N 111.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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