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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-05-25 10:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250839 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 Amanda is still rapidly intensifying. The eye has become more distinct and a large ring of cloud tops colder than -70C surround the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 6.5/127 kt and 6.0/115 kt, respectively. A blend of these estimates and the latest ADT values from UW-CIMSS support increasing the initial wind speed to 120 kt, making Amanda a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The major hurricane could gain some more strength today while the atmospheric and oceanic environments remain conducive for intensification. After that time, however, southerly shear is expected to increase and that should start the weakening process. The GFS and ECMWF models show Amanda beginning to tilt vertically in response to the shear in about 24 hours, with the low- and mid-level centers eventually decoupling. Gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and drier mid-level air should also aid in the weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the previous one in the short term to account for the higher initial wind speed, but is otherwise unchanged and follows the intensity model consensus IVCN. The cyclone is moving slowly west-northwestward, with the initial motion estimate the same as before, 295/4. A turn to the northwest is expected today followed by a northward motion tonight as Amanda gets embedded in the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its west and a mid-level ridge to its east. A northeastward turn is predicted in about 4 days when the trough to the west of Amanda gets closer to the system. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and near the latest FSSE and TVCE guidance. Based on the current intensity of the system, Amanda is the second strongest May hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin on record, behind Hurricane Adolph in 2001. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 11.7N 110.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 11.9N 111.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 12.5N 111.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 13.4N 111.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 14.3N 111.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 15.6N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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