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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-05-26 04:40:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 260240 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 Since Amanda peaked in intensity earlier today, there has been some erosion of deep convection in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone, likely due to onset of moderate south-southwesterly wind shear. A pronounced dry slot is also noted wrapping around the southern half of the circulation in geostationary and microwave imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased slightly, and the initial intensity is set to 125 kt, based on blend of Final-T and CI numbers. The initial motion is 335/03. The cyclone is located between a mid-level ridge to the east-northeast and a mid-/upper-level trough to the west. A weak deep-layer south-southeasterly to southerly flow between these two features should steer Amanda north- northwestward and then northward during the next few days. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast in about 72 hours when the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough approaches the cyclone. After that time, a much weaker Amanda should stall or begin to drift westward or southwestward as a shallow feature in the trade wind flow. The model guidance this cycle has shifted westward again, and the official forecast is adjusted in that direction. It lies on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, nearly midway between the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus TVCE through 72 hours and south of the previous forecast late in the period. Moderate to strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, combined with gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, should cause Amanda to quickly weaken during the next few days. In about 3 days, the model guidance shows the low- and mid-level circulations of Amanda decoupling as the cyclone interacts with the trough to its west. The entrainment of substantially drier and more stable air should then cause whatever remains of Amanda to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. The official forecast is slightly lower than the previous one in the short term and close to the multi-model consensus ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 12.6N 111.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 13.0N 111.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 14.0N 111.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 15.0N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 15.9N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 16.6N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 17.4N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 18.0N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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