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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-05-26 22:58:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 262058 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014 After significant erosion of the deep convection in the southern portion of the eyewall, a resurgence of convective development has occurred in the past couple of hours, including the redevelopment of the CDO feature and a cloud-filled eye. However, an average of all available satellite intensity estimates indicates that Amanda has still weakened and is now a 105-kt category 3 hurricane. A 12-hour average motion of 335/04 kt was used for the advisory motion, in spite of the many wobbles in the track during the past few hours. Although the model guidance isn't quite the proverbial squashed spider pattern that typically suggests a slow and erratic motion, it isn't far from it. Amanda is expected to move slowly northward into a broad weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone during the next few days, during which time the steering currents are forecast to collapse. While the steering currents erode, Amanda is also forecast to become a significantly weaker and more shallow cyclone during that time, resulting in the cyclone meandering south of Socorro Island as a remnant low by Day 5, if not sooner. The official forecast track remains close to a blend of the consensus model TVCE and the FSSE model. Deep-layer shear of more than 20 kt is expected to continue to affect Amanda for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in steady to rapid weakening during the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and remains close to the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 13.4N 111.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 14.8N 112.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 15.4N 112.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 15.9N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 16.4N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 16.7N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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