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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-05-27 10:48:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 270848 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014 Amanda apparently still has some gas in the tank. The hurricane appeared to be succumbing to strong vertical shear on Monday, but its satellite presentation has improved markedly during the past several hours. An eye has reappeared and is completely surrounded by convective tops as cold as -85C. The shear is still affecting the structure, however, with the clouds elongated from south to north. Nonetheless, Dvorak estimates have risen to T6.0/115 kt from TAFB, T5.5/102 kt from SAB, and T6.5/127 kt from the objective ADT. The initial intensity is therefore raised to 110 kt based on a conservative blend of these data. The recent reintensification has resulted in a somewhat significant change to the official intensity forecast. Weakening is expected to resume soon due to strong south to southwesterly shear, which should persist for another 24 hours or so. After that time, however, an upper-level shortwave trough currently to the northwest of Amanda is expected to lift northeastward and dampen, which could leave the hurricane in a slightly more favorable upper-level environment for a few days. Due to the higher initial intensity and the more favorably evolving upper-level pattern, the NHC intensity forecast shows more gradual weakening than before, and Amanda may not become a remnant low until the very end of the forecast period. Despite the adjustment, the updated forecast is near the lower end of the intensity guidance and matches best with the FSU Superensemble. The weakening trend could be even slower if the rest of the intensity models end up being correct. Amanda continues to move slowly north-northwestward...or 340/4 kt... between a weak mid-level ridge over Mexico and a mid-/upper-level trough near 20N128W. As the trough migrates eastward, Amanda is forecast to continue moving slowly northward and then turn northeastward by 48 hours. Once the cyclone weakens, however, weak low-level flow off the coast of Mexico will likely cause it to stall or meander by days 4 and 5. Although there is still a significant amount of spread in the track guidance, nearly all of the models have shifted to the right, with the GFS and ECMWF lying on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. The NHC track has also been nudged eastward and lies to the right of the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 14.2N 112.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 14.6N 112.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 15.1N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 15.8N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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