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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-05-24 22:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 242033 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 Amanda's eye is becoming more apparent in visible imagery. The hurricane has a fairly small central dense overcast with one prominent convective band curving around the western and northern side of the circulation. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T4.0/65 kt, and the objective ADT has been steady around 70 kt for the past few hours. The initial intensity is raised to 70 kt based on the ADT estimate and the development of an eye in visible imagery. Amanda likely has another 36 hours or so of favorable conditions for intensification before southerly vertical wind shear begins to increase. The rate of intensification may have slowed down just a bit, but there's no real good reason not to expect further strengthening in the short term. One potential limiting factor could be upwelling of colder ocean water due to the slow movement of the hurricane during the next few days. The intensity guidance has backed off a bit on this cycle, with many of the models peaking the maximum winds just below major hurricane strength. Only the Florida State Superensemble explicitly shows Amanda becoming a major hurricane in 24-36 hours. Nonetheless, Amanda is forecast to be right around the major hurricane threshold of 100 kt in a day or so. After 36 hours, higher vertical shear should induce a fairly fast weakening trend, and the NHC forecast now shows Amanda becoming a tropical depression by day 5. Amanda's motion remains 290/4 kt. The hurricane should begin turning northwestward within 24 hours and then northward by 36 hours as the mid-level ridge over Mexico weakens. A slightly faster motion may develop in about 48 hours due to a restrengthening of the mid-level ridge over Mexico and an amplification of a mid-level low near 130W. The NHC forecast has again been shifted a bit to the right toward the tracks of the GFS and ECMWF, both of which lie along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 11.4N 110.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 11.5N 110.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 12.0N 111.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 12.6N 111.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 13.5N 111.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 15.0N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 16.0N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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