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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-05-30 16:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301435 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 Andres has strengthened a little more this morning. The cloud pattern has become better organized with the eye of the hurricane intermittently appearing in satellite images. Recent microwave data show a well-defined eyewall, but most of the banding features are concentrated on the east side of the circulation, likely due to northwesterly shear. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, making Andres a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane still has about another day over warm water and the SHIPS model lowers the current shear during that time. Therefore, some additional short-term strengthening is possible even though none of the models suggest intensification. After that time, however, Andres is expected to move over progressively cooler water and into a more stable airmass. These unfavorable conditions should promote a steady weakening trend. The official forecast is a little higher than the previous one during the next 36 hours to account for the higher initial intensity. Andres is moving northwestward at about 6 kt toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is expected to occur tonight or on Sunday when the ridge builds to the north of the hurricane, and that general motion should continue for the remainder of the forecast period. Little change was made to the previous forecast track, and it lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 14.5N 115.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 15.1N 116.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 15.8N 118.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 16.3N 119.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 16.8N 120.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 18.2N 123.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 19.1N 127.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 19.2N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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