je.st
news
Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-05-30 22:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 302037 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 Andres' cloud pattern has not changed much during the last several hours. The eye of the hurricane remains evident in visible and infrared satellite images, but it has been occasionally obscured by high-level clouds. Recent microwave data show that the western side of the eyewall has eroded slightly, which is likely the result of northwesterly shear and drier air that is wrapping into that side of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT are all 5.0/90 kt, and accordingly, the initial wind speed is held at that value. Andres continues on a northwestward track at about 6 kt toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The models are in agreement that the hurricane should turn west-northwestward tonight or early Sunday when the ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The 12Z GFS solution has changed considerably from the previous cycle, and now shows Andres stalling and then moving eastward in the 96-120 hour time frame in response to a mid- to upper-level trough. That model is considered an outlier as it is likely keeping Andres too deep over cool waters. The official track forecast is a little to the north and slightly slower than the previous one after 72 hours. The hurricane is forecast to maintain its strength for about a day while it remains over warm water and in an environment of decreasing shear. Steady weakening is anticipated beyond that time, however, when Andres moves over progressively cooler water and into a much more stable air mass. The official intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is in good agreement with the intensity model consensus. The 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii were expanded on the east side of the circulation based on a 1650 UTC ASCAT-B pass. The 12-ft sea radii were also expanded based on a recent altimeter pass that showed sea heights as high as 28 ft. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 14.8N 116.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 15.4N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 15.9N 118.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 16.9N 121.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 18.5N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 19.5N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||