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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-05-31 16:32:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 311432 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 Andres appears to be maintaining its strength for now. The cloud pattern of the hurricane consists of a central dense overcast with an eye occasionally evident in infrared satellite images. There is some indication of drier air wrapping around the circulation as seen in total precipitate water imagery. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS were generally the same as the previous cycle, so the initial wind speed estimate remains 90 kt. Steady weakening is anticipated to begin by tonight when the hurricane moves over progressively cooler water and into a much more stable air mass. Andres is expected to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period, when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures cooler than 24 C. The official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and is in line with much of the guidance. Andres has made the expected turn toward the west-northwest, and the latest initial motion estimate is 290/7. This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days while the system remains on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, there remains significant spread in the model guidance. The GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, UKMET, and HWRF models show Andres stalling and then turning northeastward toward a mid- to upper-level trough. Conversely, the ECMWF model shows Andres moving slowly westward during the 72-120 hour time frame in the low-level flow. The official track forecast is a little north of and slower than the previous one at 72 hours and beyond. This forecast continues to lean toward the ECMWF model, especially in the longer range, which appears to have the most realistic solution of a decaying tropical cyclone moving over cool water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 15.5N 118.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 15.8N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 16.4N 120.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 17.0N 121.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.8N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 19.3N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.8N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 19.9N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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