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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-06-01 04:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010233 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 The rather unexpected intensification noted earlier today has continued into this evening. Andres has a classic presentation on satellite images, with a well-defined 15 n mi diameter eye embedded within a symmetric mass of very deep convection. The current intensity estimate is set at 120 kt, which is a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak analyses. Andres continues to move slowly westward, or 270/5 kt, in a weak steering current. Within 36 hours, the global models show a mid-tropospheric anticyclone building in the vicinity of the Baja California peninsula. This should cause Andres to turn toward the west-northwest and northwest at a slightly faster forward speed. After 72 hours, a mid-tropospheric trough is predicted to dig near the longitude of the cyclone. Andres should be rapidly weakening by that time, however, and will likely not respond much to the flow at that level. Therefore the official track forecast shows only a northeastward drift at 96-120 hours. This is similar to the previous forecast and leans toward the ECMWF model track Even though Andres has intensified significantly today, the numerical intensity guidance insists on a weakening trend beginning soon. The hurricane is likely to encounter a more stable and drier environment in the next day or two, and sea surface temperatures will be gradually cooling. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus through 72 hours, and below it afterwards since the cyclone is likely to be reduced to a remnant low over quite cool waters by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 15.3N 119.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 15.8N 120.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 16.7N 121.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 17.7N 123.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 18.7N 124.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 20.0N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z 21.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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