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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-06-02 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUN 01 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020234 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT MON JUN 01 2015 Satellite imagery shows that the coverage and intensity of central deep convection are gradually decreasing, especially over the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. In addition, the eye has become much less apparent. The initial wind speed is set at 100 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity numbers. Andres will soon be crossing the 26 deg C SST isotherm while continuing to interact with a drier and more stable air mass. These environmental factors should cause continued weakening, and the cyclone is likely to drop below hurricane strength within 36 hours or less. The NHC wind forecast closely follows the intensity model consensus. Andres is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 96 hours, but some of the guidance indicates that this event will occur sooner than that. After jogging to the left earlier today, Andres has now jogged to the right. Smoothing out the jogs yields an initial motion of 300/7 kt. The mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually break down over the next couple of days, and this should induce Andres to turn toward the northwest and north. Afterwards, a mid-level trough digs over the cyclone, but Andres should have become a shallower system and be steered slowly eastward by the weaker lower-level flow. The official forecast is very close to the latest Florida State University Superensemble track through 48 hours and close to the multi-model consensus after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 16.6N 121.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.3N 122.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 18.4N 124.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 19.3N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 20.0N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 20.4N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 20.4N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z 20.3N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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