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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 24
2015-06-03 04:46:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030246 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 Andres continues to weaken this evening as it moves over sea surface temperatures of 25C. Although the vertical wind shear is light, several recent microwave images suggest that the system is no longer vertically stacked, with the mid-level center located north of the low-level center. The initial intensity is reduced to 70 kt as a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and this could be a little generous. The initial motion is now estimated to be 305/7. There is little change to either the track forecast philosophy or the forecast guidance since the previous advisory. A developing break in the mid-level tropospheric ridge to the north of the cyclone should induce Andres to turn northward and decelerate during the next 24 hours. After that time, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to turn eastward and east-southeastward as Hurricane Blanca to the southeast becomes the dominant steering influence. The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast. A combination of decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, increasing vertical wind shear, and dry air entrainment should cause Andres to quickly weaken. The cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm in 12 hours or less, a tropical depression in about 36 hours, and a remnant low in about 48 hours. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by 120 hours as it gets closer to Hurricane Blanca. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.6N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.2N 124.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.8N 125.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.8N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 19.8N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 19.5N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 18.5N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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