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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-05-29 22:56:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 292056 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 Corrected to change NHC model to NHC model guidance Convective banding features have increased since the previous advisory, and a tight banding eye feature has occasionally appeared in visible satellite imagery. Dvorak satellite estimates are a consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT values are T4.3/72 kt. Based on these data, Andres has been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. Andres has made the anticipated turn toward the northwest, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/06 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for about the next 36-48 hours as the hurricane moves around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge located across mainland Mexico and Baja California. The ridge is forecast to gradually build westward after 72 hours, forcing Andres to turn back toward the west-northwest. The NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on this developing scenario, and the guidance is tightly clustered around the previous forecast track. As a result, the official forecast track is just an update and extension of the previous advisory track. Despite moderate northerly vertical wind shear, Andres has maintained a fairly impressive outflow pattern. However, the 850-200 mb vertical wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to increase to around 15 kt during the next 24 hours, followed by decreasing shear at 36 to 48 hours. Now that Andres has established better inner-core convection and a possible eye feature, at least modest strengthening should occur during the next 48 hours or so. Thereafter, decreasing sea surface temperatures and cooler and more stable low-level air lying just to the northwest of the hurricane should begin to affect Andres. Visible satellite imagery already indicates that cold air stratocumulus clouds are being advected into the northwestern portion of the outer circulation, which should mitigate the otherwise favorable thermodynamic conditions. As a result, a steady decrease in the intensity should occur after 72 hours, despite the low vertical wind shear regime through which the cyclone will be moving. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is above the intensity consensus model ICON and close to the SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 12.8N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 13.6N 115.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 16.4N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 17.4N 121.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 18.5N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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