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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-07-05 10:41:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050841 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 Blas has continued to strengthen since the previous advisory. The CDO has improved and the overall convective cloud pattern has become more symmetrical. A ragged eye feature has been evident in infrared imagery and is now completely surrounded by cloud tops colder than -75C. Recent AMSU and ASCAT overpasses have helped to place the center a little to the northeast of the positions noted in conventional infrared imagery. The initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and NHC objective intensities ranging from T4.7-T5.0, and the continued improvement in the eye pattern depicted in conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Based primarily on microwave satellite fixes, Blas continues to move west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. The hurricane is forecast to move in a general west-northward direction throughout the forecast period due to a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge remaining nearly stationary to the north of Blas. The latest NHC global and regional model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this stable steering pattern, and the models are tightly packed around the previous advisory track. Therefore, only minor tweaks were made, and the new forecast track lies close to the consensus track model TVCE. Blas has been rapidly strengthening over the past 24 hours, and an additional 12 hours or so of significant strengthening is supported by an expanding upper-level outflow pattern, low vertical wind shear values decreasing to less than 5 kt by 12-24 hours, and a smaller radius of maximum winds of about 15 nmi noted in recent ASCAT data. Although vertical shear values are expected to remain low, by 36-48 hours Blas will be moving over SSTs near 26C and ocean heat content values near zero, which should result in cooling of the ocean beneath the hurricane and begin a slow weakening trend. By 72 hours and beyond, Blas will be moving over even cooler water and into a drier and more stable air mass, negative factors which should combine to induce more significant weakening. The official intensity forecast remains well above he consensus model IVCN and closely follows the GFS-based LGEM statistical-dynamical intensity model, which has thus far handled Blas' intensification trend the best. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 14.2N 118.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 14.5N 119.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 15.0N 122.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 15.4N 124.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 16.0N 126.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 17.2N 129.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 19.1N 133.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 20.7N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Stewart
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