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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-07-06 04:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060233 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 Blas continues to intensify. Satellite images indicate that Blas has a typical appearance of a major hurricane with a distinct eye surrounded by a fairly symmetric ring of deep convection. The Dvorak CI-numbers at 0000 UTC were 6.0/115 kt from TAFB and SAB, and recent ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are a little higher. Based on these estimates and the continued improvement in organization since the time of the classifications, the initial wind speed is set at 120 kt. This makes Blas a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane has slowed a little in forward speed, and the latest initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt. The models are in very good agreement for the next 3 days or so in showing Blas continuing westward to west-northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and the eastern Pacific Ocean. After that time, however, the model solutions diverge with the bulk of the guidance showing a northwestward motion due to the cyclone interacting with a cut-off low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The ECMWF model has a notably different solution showing little involvement with the cut-off low, which results in Blas continuing westward. No significant changes were made to the previous prediction and this track forecast lies close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that there is low confidence at the latter forecast points. Blas still has another 12-18 hours of favorable conditions for strengthening. Beyond that time, the cyclone is expected to move over cool water and into a progressively drier air mass. These conditions should end the strengthening phase and cause a steady weakening trend. The official NHC intensity forecast lies at the upper end the guidance in the short term, but then falls in line with the intensity model consensus from 36-120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 14.4N 121.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 14.8N 123.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 15.4N 125.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 16.0N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 16.6N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 18.2N 132.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 20.2N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 21.6N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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