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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-07-06 10:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060836 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 The satellite presentation of Blas has degraded since the previous advisory, as the convective ring surrounding the eye had warmed and shrunk. The eye, however, remains distinct in infrared imagery. The initial intensity has been lowered to 110 kt, which is a little above a blend of the latest Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. Sea surface temperatures gradually cool along the forecast track, which should result in weakening, albeit at a slow pace during the first day or so. After 24 hours the rate of weakening should increase as SSTs fall below 27C. Blas is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 4 days and a remnant low by day 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to or a little above the latest LGEM and IVCN intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 280/10, as Blas has begun to gain some latitude. Blas should move west-northwestward for the next 48 hours while being steered around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. After that time the model spread increases. The GFS based guidance, including the HWRF and GFDL, shows Blas turning northwestward late in the period as it interacts with an upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The ECMWF continues to show less interaction between Blas and the upper-level low and has the cyclone turning westward at days 4-5. Given the continued spread in the guidance, the NHC track forecast will stay in the middle of the two extremes and shows a northwestward to west-northwestward motion at days 4-5. This forecast is a little south of the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus. Given the uncertainty, there is low confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 14.7N 122.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 15.1N 124.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 15.7N 126.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 16.9N 129.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 18.8N 132.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 21.0N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 11/0600Z 22.5N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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