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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 16
2016-07-06 22:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 062034 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 Blas has a very impressive satellite presentation this afternoon. The hurricane has a large, distinct eye in visible satellite images that is surrounded by a very symmetric ring of deep convection. Dvorak T-numbers are virtually unchanged since this morning so the initial intensity of 110 kt has been maintained. The hurricane is expected to begin to weaken tonight as it moves over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures. Blas should cross the 26C isotherm in about 24 hours, which is expected to cause a faster rate of decay. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical in about 96 hours, and weaken to a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is between the SHIPS and LGEM guidance and close to the multi-model intensity consensus. The initial motion remains 285/10 kt. Blas should continue moving west-northwestward during the next day or so while it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. After that time, the hurricane is expected to turn northwestward between the western portion of the ridge and a large mid- to upper-level low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The spread of the guidance remains fairly large at 72 hours and beyond, however, the models have moved a little closer together with the GFS-based guidance shifting southward while the ECMWF has nudged northward. As a result, little change has been made to the NHC track prediction, which lies closest to the GFS/ECMWF (GFEX) consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 15.2N 124.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.7N 126.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.2N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.0N 129.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 20.2N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 21.8N 137.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 11/1800Z 22.5N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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