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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-07-07 04:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 070234 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 The satellite presentation of Blas remains quite impressive. The eye of the hurricane is about 20-25 n mi wide with evidence of mesovorticies within it. The convective structure has changed little throughout the day and remains fairly symmetric around the center. A blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and the automated technique from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that the intensity of Blas is holding steady at around 110 kt. The major hurricane is not far away from cool water, and it will likely be crossing the 26 C isotherm in about 12 hours. These anticipated unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a progressively more stable air mass should promote a steady weakening trend during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and is fairly close to the intensity model consensus. The system is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 4 days when sea surface temperatures beneath the cyclone will likely be around 24 C. Blas is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt on the southwestern periphery of a sprawling mid-level ridge. This general motion should continue for the next couple of days as the ridge remains the primary steering influence. Beyond that time, the forecast track is less certain as the model spread remains quite large with the GFS-based guidance showing a northwestward motion around the east side of a mid- to upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Conversely, the ECMWF and UKMET models show less interaction with the upper low, resulting in a more westward track. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and is in best agreement with the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 15.7N 125.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.1N 126.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 16.7N 128.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 17.5N 129.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 18.7N 131.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 20.8N 134.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 22.1N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 12/0000Z 22.2N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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