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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 20
2016-07-07 22:38:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 072038 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 The eye of Blas has become cloud filled in visible satellite imagery today, but the convective ring surrounding the center has changed little since this morning. Recent microwave imagery indicates that the southwestern portion of the eyewall has eroded somewhat. Although the subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates have not changed much since 1200 UTC, the objective T-numbers have decreased and the initial wind speed has been reduced to 100 kt. Blas will be moving over cooler water and into a more stable environment during the next several days. This should result in a faster rate of weakening and Blas is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm in about 36 hours, and become post-tropical in about 72 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is between the SHIPS/LGEM guidance and close to the multi-model intensity consensus. Blas continues to move west-northwestward or 290/9. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. The hurricane is expected to turn northwestward on Friday between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. In 2 to 3 days, a weaker and more shallow Blas should turn westward in the low-level easterly flow. The GFS and ECMWF continue to converge on this solution, and the updated NHC track is near a consensus of those models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 16.6N 127.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 17.1N 128.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 18.2N 130.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 19.5N 131.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 20.9N 132.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 22.2N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z 22.2N 140.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z 21.8N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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