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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 25
2016-07-09 04:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 090233 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016 Blas has continued to move over increasingly cooler waters, and although the convection has been on a general weakening trend, the hurricane still has a vigorous circulation as indicated by ASCAT earlier today. A blend of subjective and objective Dvorak numbers from all agencies supports an initial intensity of 70 kt. In addition to the effect of cooler waters, the shear is forecast to increase. Recent microwave imagery suggests that the low-level center is south of the convection, indicating that the shear is already increasing. These factors should result in faster weakening, and Blas is expected to become a remnant low by Sunday or sooner. In fact, SHIPS and LGEM basically dissipate the cyclone in 48 hours or so. The cyclone is moving toward the northwest or 325 degrees at about 10 kt around the southwestern periphery of the Pacific subtropical ridge, and this general track is forecast to continue for a day or so. In about 36 hours or less, Blas should have become a shallow system and will likely be steered westward and west-southwestward by the low-level trade winds. Most of the models have been fairly consistent with this scenario for a while, and there are no obvious reasons to vary from earlier NHC forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 19.2N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 20.2N 132.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 21.3N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 21.8N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0000Z 21.7N 137.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z 21.0N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z 20.0N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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