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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-07-05 04:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050234 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016 Blas is gradually gaining strength. A ragged eye has been occasionally evident in geostationary satellite images and the inner core of the hurricane appears a little better organized than it was earlier today. In fact, a recent SSMIS microwave overpass showed an eye feature within the symmetric CDO. The latest Dvorak classifications and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support raising the initial intensity to 75 kt. The hurricane is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening for another 36 hours as the wind shear is expected to be less than 10 kt with sufficiently warm water and a considerable amount of moisture. The official NHC intensity forecast remains at the upper end of the guidance during that time and calls for Blas to reach major hurricane status. In about two days, however, the system is forecast to move over sea surface temperatures of around 26 C and into a more stable air mass, which should end the strengthening phase and promote a steady weakening trend. Blas is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end of the period when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures near 24 C. Blas continues to move west-northwestward at about 12 kt on the south side of a sprawling mid-level ridge over Mexico and the eastern Pacific Ocean. The models are in very good agreement in showing a continued west-northwestward motion during the next 3 to 4 days while the ridge remains the primary steering mechanism. There is some divergence in the model solutions by the end of the forecast period, with the GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models showing a more northern track while the ECMWF and HWRF models have a track farther south. This spread is associated with differences in how much Blas interacts with a cut off low north of the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 14.0N 116.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 14.4N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 14.9N 121.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 15.3N 123.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 15.8N 125.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 17.1N 129.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 18.9N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 20.7N 135.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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