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Hurricane Barry Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-07-13 16:56:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 131455 TCDAT2 Hurricane Barry Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Between 11-12Z, the National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 62 kt and a peak gust of 74 kt at an elevation of about 10 m. Doppler radar winds from the Slidell WSR-88D suggested surface winds of 60-65 kt as well. In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported SFMR wind estimates of 60-63 kt near Eugene Island, and 850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt. Based on these data and the possibility that the strongest winds were not sampled, it is estimated that Barry became a hurricane around 11-12Z despite its less than classical appearance in satellite imagery. It should be noted that hurricane-force winds are limited to a small area east of the center, and that the upgrade to a hurricane means little in terms of the overall impacts from Barry. Barry is now moving northwestward with an initial motion of 310/5. The center should cross the Louisiana coast during the next few hours, then move slowly toward the north-northwest and north through Louisiana for the next 36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north. This general motion should continue until the system dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west of the previous one based on the initial position and a slight westward shift in the track guidance. Barry should quickly weaken below hurricane strength as it moves onshore, and subsequently it is forecast to weaken below tropical storm strength between 24-36 h and degenerate into a trough by 96 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is ongoing along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. 2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely later today and tonight as Barry moves inland, especially across portions of south-central and southeast Louisiana into Mississippi. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from Sunday into next week, extending from the central Gulf Coast north across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley. 3. Hurricane conditions are occurring within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast. Tropical storm conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 29.6N 92.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 30.4N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1200Z 31.6N 92.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/0000Z 33.0N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/1200Z 34.3N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1200Z 37.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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