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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 21
2024-07-03 22:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 03 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 032042 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC WED JUL 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 77.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 77.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 76.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.1N 80.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.2N 86.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.9N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.9N 91.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.9N 93.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 96.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.0N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 77.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 04/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-07-03 22:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYEWALL OF BERYL BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING... ...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 the center of Beryl was located near 17.5, -77.6 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 21
2024-07-03 22:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 032042 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...EYEWALL OF BERYL BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING... ...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 77.6W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Grand Cayman * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo Catoche to Campeche A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 77.6 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion should continue through this evening, followed by a turn more toward the west tonight or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will pass near or over the southern coast of Jamaica during the next few hours. After that, the center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes the Cayman Islands. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Kingston, Jamaica, recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 81 mph (130 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of Jamaica at this time, especially along the southern coast and in the mountainous areas. Tropical storm conditions are occurring elsewhere on the island. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength late this afternoon or early tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night or early Friday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula by late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday, and in the tropical storm watch area along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with localized amounts of 12 inches across Jamaica through Wednesday evening, along with additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. This heavy rainfall is expected to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Beryl is also expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands Wednesday night into Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches late Thursday through Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are anticipated. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting the southern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. These swells are expected to reach the coasts of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, the Cayman Islands, and the south coast of Cuba this evening, and they are expected to reach the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by midday Thursday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics