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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 14
2024-07-02 04:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 729 WTNT42 KNHC 020252 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 Data from a NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft tonight has been quite helpful in assessing Beryl's structure and intensity. Within the past hour, the aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 157 kt in the northeastern quadrant. A typical 90 percent reduction translates to a maximum sustained wind of 140 kt, which makes Beryl a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. This is the earliest Category 5 hurricane observed in the Atlantic basin on record, and only the second Category 5 hurricane to occur in July after Hurricane Emily in 2005. Beryl continues to move quickly to the west-northwest, even a bit faster than earlier, estimated from plane fixes to be 290/19 kt. A well-established subtropical ridge oriented ESE-to-WNW of Beryl is expected to continue to steer the small but potent hurricane quickly west-northwestward into the central Caribbean over the next several days. After 48 hours, the strongest ridging becomes positioned more NW of Beryl, and the storm could turn a bit more westward and gradually slow down when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean. The guidance this cycle has nudged a bit further north this cycle, and thus the NHC forecast track has also been shifted in that direction, roughly between the reliable HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. After 72 hours, model track spread increases quite markedly, especially after Beryl emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, and forecast confidence in the track at the end of the forecast is rather low. While I cannot rule out a bit more intensification in the short-term, dropsonde pressure observations between fixes in Beryl's eye have remained steady at 938 mb. It is also possible another eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) could begin like we saw last night, with UW-CIMSS MPERC model giving another ERC a 50-75 percent probability based on the last few microwave passes. With that said, after the next 24 hours, both the GFS and ECMWF remain insistent that significant mid-level westerly shear (above 30 kt) will begin to undercut Beryl's outflow layer. The HAFS-A/B regional-hurricane models, which did a good job predicting Beryl's peak intensity today, are also insistent this shear will start to disrupt the hurricane after the next 24 hours. There is evidence of this less favorable upper-level pattern on GOES-16 water vapor imagery upwind of Beryl's track, and thus a faster rate of weakening is forecasted from 36-72 hours. There remains much uncertainty of what Beryl's structure or intensity will be as it approaches or crosses the Yucatan, but the current GFS and ECMWF upper-level pattern in the Gulf of Mexico does not look especially favorable for restrengthening at the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south coast of Hispaniola. 2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible over portions of Jamaica on Wednesday. 3. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean, and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Tuesday or Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 13.8N 64.9W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 14.8N 67.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 15.9N 71.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 16.8N 75.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 17.7N 78.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 18.2N 82.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 18.6N 85.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 20.5N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/0000Z 22.5N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Graphics
2024-07-02 04:52:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jul 2024 02:52:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jul 2024 03:23:04 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2024-07-02 04:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 020248 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0300 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 17(44) 1(45) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31) X(31) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 6(27) X(27) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CURACAO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) X(21) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 53(68) X(68) X(68) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 1(35) X(35) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 11(11) 67(78) 4(82) X(82) X(82) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 42(42) 46(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 10(10) 48(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) LES CAYES 34 X 2( 2) 30(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 8( 8) 19(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 1 53(54) 7(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) CAPE BEATA 50 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE BEATA 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PONCE PR 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics