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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 26
2024-07-05 04:45:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 050245 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 The weakening trend of Beryl has reversed this evening. Satellite images show that the eye has occasionally been evident and the eyewall is about two-thirds closed based on Cancun radar images and reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Data from the reconnaissance mission indicated that Beryl has strengthened back to a dangerous category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of about 100 kt. The minimum pressure has fallen about 10 mb from this afternoon to 964 mb. The aircraft also indicated that Beryl remains compact, and it is actually a little smaller than previously estimated. The hurricane has turned westward and slowed down slightly on the south side of a ridge centered over the southeastern U.S., with the latest initial motion estimated to be 275/14 kt. Beryl is expected to maintain that general motion during the next 12 hours, which should cause it to make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula very near Tulum early Friday morning. Most of the models show the center remaining over land for about 18 hours, and then emerging over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night. Around that time, Beryl is expected to turn to the northwest and slow down some more as it moves along the western periphery of the weakening ridge and toward a trough over the south-central U.S. Although the models are in fair agreement, there is still some spread in exactly how sharp the system turns northwestward, and to a large degree the structure and intensity of Beryl will be a notable factor on its track over the Gulf. The new NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one, following the trend in the latest models. It now seems likely that Beryl will maintain its strength until it reaches the coast. Once the core moves inland, rapid weakening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to fall below hurricane strength by the time it exits the Yucatan. Assuming the system is able to maintain some elements of an inner core, gradual re-intensification seems likely before it makes its final landfall in northeastern Mexico or southern Texas. The NHC intensity forecast again lies near the high end of the models and continues to show Beryl becoming a hurricane again over the western Gulf. Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, so it is too soon to pinpoint where the largest impacts will be. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are forecast to begin within the next few hours across the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area. Residents there should shelter in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions. 2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas late this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued on Friday. 3. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 19.6N 85.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 20.0N 87.5W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0000Z 20.9N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/1200Z 21.9N 92.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 07/0000Z 22.9N 94.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 23.8N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 24.7N 96.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 26.8N 98.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0000Z 28.9N 99.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2024-07-05 04:45:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 050244 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) 2(22) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 2(23) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 10(35) 2(37) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 2(22) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 14(26) 3(29) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 13(31) 3(34) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 47(57) 6(63) 1(64) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 4(28) 1(29) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) 1(21) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) MERIDA MX 34 1 78(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) MERIDA MX 50 X 24(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MERIDA MX 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 63 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) COZUMEL MX 64 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 26
2024-07-05 04:44:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 050244 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL IS APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 85.5W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued for that region on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 85.5 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with the center expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula Friday morning. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas late in the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. Rapid weakening is expected while Beryl crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, but slow re-intensification is expected when Beryl moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported a sustained wind of 65 mph (105 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h). The minimum central pressure of 964 mb (28.47 inches) is based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula overnight and on Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength during the next few hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula overnight into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by early Friday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, through Friday across the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered instances of flash flooding are anticipated across the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics