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Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 10
2024-07-01 04:42:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 010241 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 ...BERYL STILL A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 58.1W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada * Tobago A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Trinidad A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 58.1 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early tomorrow morning. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the core of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting tomorrow morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting tomorrow morning for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 10
2024-07-01 04:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 010240 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0300 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 58.1W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 135SE 75SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 58.1W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 57.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.2N 60.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.8N 68.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.9N 72.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 55NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.7N 75.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 79.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 70SW 105NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.7N 91.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 58.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-07-01 01:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 302352 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Beryl, located a couple hundred miles east of the Windward Islands and on newly formed Tropical Depression Three, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics