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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-06-29 22:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 292035 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 16(51) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 10(56) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 7(28) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 1(37) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 27(50) X(50) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) X(23) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 9(28) X(28) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 31(42) X(42) X(42) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 63(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 78(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 58(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 45(46) 33(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 14(14) 30(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 55(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) GRENADA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) PORT OF SPAIN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JUANGRIEGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-06-29 22:35:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL IS NOW A HURRICANE AND FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Jun 29 the center of Beryl was located near 10.1, -49.3 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 5
2024-06-29 22:35:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 292034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 ...BERYL IS NOW A HURRICANE AND FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 49.3W ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for the island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique * Dominica * Tobago A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area this evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 49.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas Sunday night or Monday morning. Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch areas by Monday morning. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane warning and watch areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas. Showers and thunderstorms well north of Beryl may produce 1 to 4 inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday. Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics