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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-06-12 22:51:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122051 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 Bud has slowed down since the previous advisory and is now crawling northwestward at 325/03 kt. No changes were required to the previous forecast track due to the recent NHC model guidance remaining tightly packed and in excellent agreement on both track and forward speed. Bud should turn toward the north-northwest later this evening and continue that motion for another 24 h or so. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn northward at a slightly faster forward speed on Thursday and Friday, passing over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula as a weakening tropical storm by Friday morning. By Saturday, Bud or its remnants are forecast to move inland over western mainland Mexico, and dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Sunday. Although it is unlikely that the low-level circulation will be able to make it across the high coastal mountains of western Mexico, a 120-h forecast point has been provided for continuity purposes, and would be more representative of the location of Bud's remnant mid-level circulation. The new NHC forecast track is basically on top of the previous advisory track, and remains close to a blend of the various consensus models. Bud's slow motion over already marginally warm SSTs and near zero upper-ocean heat content is likely producing significant cold upwelling beneath the cyclone, a negative factor that is forecast to worsen over the next 48 hours. The result should be continued rapid weakening right up until the time Bud approaches southern Baja California on Thursday. Expected land interaction thereafter will further weaken the cyclone, and Bud could become a remnant low or even dissipate before it reaches mainland Mexico in 96 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to a blend of the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE. Based on the forecast track and 34-kt wind radii, a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur on the next advisory package. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest over the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 18.6N 108.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 19.1N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 19.9N 109.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 20.8N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 22.0N 110.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 25.2N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 29.3N 110.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 17/1800Z 35.0N 110.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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