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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-06-13 10:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130833 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Bud continues to be adversely affect by cooler waters and decreasing oceanic heat content. The eye has disappeared from geostationary imagery, and the inner core convection has been eroded. Using a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the current intensity is set at 65 kt for this advisory. Bud should encounter even cooler waters over the next day or so, which should result in additional weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus and to the DSHIPS output. Despite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is still anticipated to be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur in about 48 hours. A mid-level high centered over the southwestern United States has been partly blocking Bud's north-northwestward advance and the current motion of the cyclone is about 330/4 kt. A mid-level trough approaching southern California and the northern Baja California peninsula should cause Bud to move faster toward the north in a couple of days. Not much change has been made to the previous official forecast, and the new NHC forecast is close the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, track. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest over the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 19.1N 108.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 19.6N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 20.6N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 21.6N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 23.1N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 27.5N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/0600Z 34.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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