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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 14
2015-06-14 04:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140245 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0300 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 100.1W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 100.1W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 100.0W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.9N 100.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.4N 101.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 102.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 103.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 105.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 106.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 106.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 100.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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