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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 23
2015-06-16 10:45:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160845 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 The satellite presentation is somewhat improved this evening with the clouds near the embedded center of circulation cooling to -80C. Furthermore, an earlier SSMI/S overpass revealed development of a small banding eye feature in the cloud pattern, despite the 8-10 kt of northerly shear. Accordingly, the initial intensity is kept at 65 kt for this advisory. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12-24 hours, then gradual weakening is anticipated through the remaining period as indicated by the SHIPS intensity model, the global models, and the Florida State Superensemble. The aforementioned weakening trend is based on the expectation that the cyclone will be moving into an area of large-scale subsidence and drier air spreading southward from Baja California and northwest Mexico. The increasingly unfavorable environment should result in Carlos becoming a remnant low in 3 days. Carlos has continued to move west-northwestward or 295/5 kt over the past 12 hours. A turn to the north-northwest is expected Wednesday morning as the cyclone enters a growing weakness in the subtropical ridge extending westward from central Mexico. Carlos is forecast to continue on this general motion until dissipation in 5 days. The NHC forecast has again been adjusted a bit to the left of the previous advisory to side with the reliable TVCN model consensus and the Florida State Superensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.4N 103.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.8N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 18.5N 105.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 19.2N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 19.8N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 20.6N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z 21.4N 107.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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