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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 24
2015-06-16 16:40:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 161439 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 Recent microwave data show that Carlos remains a tiny but well- organized hurricane. A well-defined eye was noted in the microwave data, but no eye is apparent in early-morning visible satellite images. The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt based on satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane should provide a better estimate of the maximum winds in a few hours. The intensity forecast remains a challenge, and with Carlos being such a small cyclone, sudden changes in intensity--up or down--are a distinct possibility. The SHIPS diagnostics don't show environmental parameters being too hostile, and both the SHIPS and LGEM keep Carlos in the 60-65 kt range for the next three days. The global models, on the other hand, weaken the cyclone quickly, with the ECMWF showing dissipation by the end of that same time frame. The official forecast continues to hold on to the assumption that dry air and large-scale subsidence will become an issue in a few days, and Carlos is forecast to weaken gradually to a remnant low by day 4. As implied above, this intensity forecast is of low confidence. The initial motion is 290/4 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected during the next few days, which should keep Carlos just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. The updated NHC track forecast has again been shifted a bit westward, following the trend in the overall guidance envelope and the TVCN multi-model consensus. Since the ECMWF dissipates the cyclone in about three days, the official forecast favors the GFS solution after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 17.5N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 18.0N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 18.6N 105.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 19.1N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 19.5N 106.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 20.1N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 21.2N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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