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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 26
2015-06-17 05:01:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 170301 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 Tiny hurricane Carlos' surface circulation is appearing to become unglued from its deep convection and its mid-level circulation. While a mid-level center may be co-located within the convection near 17.5N 105.0W, the surface center is located substantially farther northeast. However, it is an open question as to where exactly it is currently located. My best estimate shown below is based upon last-light visible imagery and a very timely 0051Z WindSat microwave pass. The initial position suggests a current motion of 315/4 kt. Decaying Carlos should continue to move toward the northwest at about the same rate of speed, as it gets advected along by the low-level flow. As all of the global models lose the circulation of Carlos within a day, the track forecast is based upon a blend of persistence and the BAM advection models. Due to the more northward initial position, the track prediction is farther north than that from the previous advisory. The areal extent of deep convection is also diminishing and the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are dropping in response. The initial intensity of 65 kt is based upon a 4.0 CI number from both agencies, which represents a substantial drop from what the aircraft reconnaissance observed only several hours ago. It is quite possible that the tropical cyclone is even weaker than indicated here, given the rather abrupt dislocation of the convection from the center. Embedded within an increasingly dry and stable atmosphere coupled with moderate northerly vertical shear, Carlos should continue to weaken. The official forecast is a blend between the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models (which slowly weaken Carlos) and the HWRF and GFDL dynamical models (which nearly immediately dissipate Carlos). This forecast is substantially below the predictions from the last advisory due to the quick reversal from intensification to weakening. Given the tiny size of the system, the very rapid dissipation indicated by the dynamical models is not out of the question. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 18.2N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 19.1N 105.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 19.5N 106.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 19.8N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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