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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 12A
2015-06-13 19:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131738 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 100 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 ...CARLOS STILL MEANDERING SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 100.0W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Carlos was located by satellite and radar data near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 100.0 West. Carlos has been erratically moving during the past few hours, but is expected to move toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) by later today. A west-northwest to northwest motion at an increasing forward speed is expected over the next day or two. Carlos is expected to move nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast over the next couple of days. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by tonight or Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Monday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with locally higher amounts around 6 inches. The states of Mexico affected include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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