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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 23A
2015-06-16 13:36:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 161135 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 700 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...CARLOS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 104.0W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 104.0 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the north-northwest is expected Wednesday morning, and this motion is forecast to continue through Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Carlos should move parallel to and just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next couple of days. However, only a small deviation to the north of the forecast track could bring Carlos to the coastline. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to commence on Wednesday and continue through Thursday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area later today. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango, and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible through Thursday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are also possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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