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Hurricane CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-07-10 22:49:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 102046 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 After an early morning burst of deep, cold-topped thunderstorms over the center, dry air entrainment has once again taken its toll on the inner-core convective structure of Celia. The CDO has eroded due to a narrow band of dry air wrapping all the way into the center, which is noted in both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Celia has now taken the appearance of a tropical cyclone with a banding eye feature. Dvorak estimates are T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB, and the consensus of various objective satellite intensity estimates is 70 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set to 70 kt, making Celia the second hurricane of the 2016 eastern North Pacific season. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii are based on 1808Z ASCAT-B wind data. The initial motion estimate remains 275/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Celia should move westward for the next 24 h along the southern periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge, followed by turn to the west-northwest on day 2 as a shortwave trough briefly weakens the ridge. By day 3 and beyond, the ridge is forecast to re-strengthen and force Celia back on a westward track. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly clustered about the previous forecast track, so the new forecast is basically just an update of the previous advisory and lies close to the TCVE consensus track model. Celia still has another 24 h or so to strengthen while the vertical wind shear remains light and sea-surface temperatures are above 26.5C. By 48 h, decreasing SSTs ahead of the hurricane should induce gradual weakening, but not as fast as normal due to the light shear conditions that are expected to continue through day 5. The NHC intensity forecast remains above the intensity consensus model IVCN, and continues to follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 15.0N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 15.1N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 15.3N 126.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 15.8N 128.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 16.6N 130.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 18.5N 133.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 20.2N 137.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 21.1N 142.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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