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Hurricane CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 18
2016-07-11 04:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 110237 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 Celia has well-defined curved banding features, but the convection is not very deep at this time. A fairly symmetric upper-level outflow pattern is evident, consistent with a low-shear environment. The Dvorak data T-number from TAFB was slightly lower and that from SAB was unchanged, and the current intensity estimate is kept at 70 kt for this advisory. Sea surface temperatures should be marginally supportive for strengthening for another 24 hours or so, and thereafter slightly cooler waters are expected to cause a weakening trend to commence. As noted in the earlier advisory the shear over the tropical cyclone is likely to remain low for the next several days, and this should keep the rate of weakening rather slow. The official intensity forecast is very close to the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance. There has been no significant change to the motion, which is estimated to be 270/11 kt. The track forecast seems to be fairly straightforward and there is little change to the prognostic reasoning. Celia will be nearing the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, and this should cause the motion to gradually bend toward the west-northwest during the next couple of days. Afterwards, the subtropical ridge rebuilds to the north of the cyclone resulting in a turn back toward the west by the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very similar to that from the previous advisory, and is also close to the dynamical model consensus. This is between the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 15.0N 123.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 15.1N 125.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 15.5N 127.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 16.2N 129.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 17.0N 130.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 18.9N 134.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 20.7N 138.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 21.5N 143.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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