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Hurricane CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2016-07-11 10:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 110833 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016 Celia still has a somewhat ragged satellite appearance tonight. The deepest convection is located in a broken ring around a ragged intermittent eye and in a band well east of the center. TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates at 06Z were T4.5/77 kt, and the initial intensity is set to 75 kt for this advisory. Additional slow strengthening seems likely for the next day or so while Celia moves over SSTs above 26C. After that time the waters will cool, which should result in a slow weakening through the remainder of the forecast period since the shear will remain low. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, showing a peak of 90 kt in about 24 h, and this is above all of the intensity guidance. During the weakening phase, the NHC forecast lies between the stronger SHIPS model and the weaker LGEM. The hurricane is moving westward at 11 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast in about 24 hours as Celia reaches the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge. By the end of the period, the ridge should rebuild to the north, resulting in the track bending back toward the west. Overall, the track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. For this cycle, the NHC forecast has been adjusted a bit to the north, but lies south of the latest TVCN multi-model consensus aid. An ASCAT-B pass from around 0520Z was used to adjust the initial 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 15.0N 124.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 15.1N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 15.7N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 16.5N 129.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 17.5N 131.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 19.6N 135.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 21.0N 139.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 21.5N 144.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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