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Hurricane CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 20
2016-07-11 16:41:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 111440 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016 After developing what had been a decent looking eye with a diameter of about 20 nmi, dry air has once again penetrated into the inner-core region and has eroded most of the eyewall convection. Satellite current intensity estimates range from T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB to as high as T5.4/100 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Given the ragged-appearing inner-core region in the last few images, the intensity is only raised to 80 kt for this advisory, which is consistent with a 1200 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON consensus of 82 kt. The initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt. A westward motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest late tonight as Celia begins to move into a developing weakness in the subtropical ridge. This weakness will be created by a narrow mid-level trough along 130W longitude that is digging southward as noted in water vapor imagery. The shortwave trough is forecast to weaken by 72 h and lift out to the north or northeast, which will allow the ridge to rebuild and force Celia back on a more westward track on days 3-5. Similar to the previous advisory, the NHC track model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this scenario and is tightly packed around the previous forecast track. As a result, the new forecast track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies just south of the TVCN consensus model. Celia likely only has another 12 hours or so to strengthen while the hurricane remains over SSTs above 26.5 deg C. The overall mid-level environment is fairly moist and the vertical shear is expected to remain light, which should favor some additional intensification. By 36 hours, however, Celia will be moving over sub-26C SSTs, which should induce slow but steady weakening through the remainder of the forecast period. However, since the vertical wind shear is expected to remain low, Celia is forecast to still be a tropical cyclone when it crosses 140W longitude and moves into the Central Pacific basin in about 96 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies above all of the intensity guidance through 36 h, and then lies near or below the guidance after that during the weakening phase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 15.1N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 15.5N 126.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 16.1N 128.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 17.1N 130.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 18.2N 132.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 20.1N 136.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 21.1N 140.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 21.6N 145.8W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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