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Hurricane CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 22
2016-07-12 04:44:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120244 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016 Celia continues to lack a definitive Central Dense Overcast and the central features look rather ragged in conventional geostationary imagery. A 37 GHz SSM/I image from a few hours ago revealed that the eye was open over the northeast quadrant. The current intensity estimate is kept at 85 kt, which is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates. Since Celia should be moving over waters that will be gradually cooling and into a more stable air mass, a weakening trend will commence soon. The official intensity forecast is very close to the latest model consensus, IVCN. The cyclone has turned toward the west-northwest and the motion is now about 285/9 kt. Celia is near the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is likely for the next couple of days. A mid-level cyclone currently to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is predicted to open up into a trough and lift northward, allowing a ridge to build back in to the north of the tropical cyclone. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause Celia to turn more toward the west in the latter part of the forecast period. The track models have mostly shifted northward from their previous predictions, so the official forecast has been nudged a little to the north of the previous one. This is south of the latest dynamical model consensus, however. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 15.5N 127.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 16.2N 128.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 17.4N 130.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 18.6N 132.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 19.8N 134.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 21.4N 138.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 22.0N 143.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 22.5N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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