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Hurricane CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 23
2016-07-12 10:45:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120845 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 The cloud pattern of Celia has changed somewhat, as the hurricane appears to be completing an eyewall replacement cycle. A 50-60 n mi wide eye now is embedded in a relatively small central dense overcast, which gives Celia a somewhat annular appearance. Subjective and objective satellite estimates have changed little since the past advisory, so the initial intensity remains 85 kt. Celia has continued to turn to the right and the initial motion is now 300/9. The hurricane is near the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, and a northwestward motion is likely for the next couple of days. A mid-level cyclone seen in water vapor imagery near 29N 151W is expected to weaken to a trough and move northward after 24-48 hours, which would allow a ridge to build back in to the north of the tropical cyclone. This development would steer Celia in a more westerly direction in the later part of the forecast period. The tightly clustered track models have again shifted a little northward from their previous predictions, and the official forecast shows a similar small shift. The new forecast track lies near the various consensus models in the middle of the guidance envelope. Celia should be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures for the next several days, and the dynamical models forecast increasing northwesterly shear after 48 hours. This combination should cause Celia to weaken, and all of the intensity guidance supports this scenario. The new intensity forecast remains in best agreement with the intensity consensus IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 16.2N 127.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 17.0N 129.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 18.2N 131.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 19.4N 133.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 20.4N 135.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 22.0N 139.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 22.5N 144.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 23.0N 148.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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