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Hurricane CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 24
2016-07-12 16:32:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 121432 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 Although the cloud pattern remains well organized, the convection has weakened considerably during the past several hours while the circulation moves over cooler waters. The eye, or what is left of it, has become large and ragged with the deepest convection located within a curved band to the east. Given that the numbers from both TAFB and SAB have decreased to 4.0 on the Dvorak scale, the initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt, which is an intensity higher than one can expect from these numbers. However, due to continuity and Dvorak constraints, this is probably a good estimate at this time. Celia is moving toward increasingly cooler waters, and beyond 2 days, the shear is expected to increase. These two factors should result in weakening. Most of the models call for gradual weakening and so does the NHC forecast, which in fact, is very close to the SHIPS model. Celia is now moving toward the northwest at 10 kt around the subtropical ridge. Global models forecast the ridge to amplify a little, and this could force Celia on a more west-northwesterly track later today or Wednesday. By the end of the forecast period, Celia should have become a shallow cyclone, and will likely move on a westward track steered by the low-level flow. The NHC forecast is very near the multi-model consensus and continues to be very similar to the previous forecast. Since the track guidance is in good agreement, there is high confidence in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 16.8N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 17.8N 129.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 18.9N 131.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 19.9N 133.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 21.0N 136.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 22.1N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 22.5N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 23.5N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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