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Hurricane CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 25
2016-07-12 22:34:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 122034 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 The cloud pattern consists of a large ragged eye surrounded by a ring of moderate convection and a convective curved band to the east of the eye. The overall amount of convection has been decreasing during the past 12 hours. The Dvorak T-numbers have decreased slightly during the day, and the best estimate of the current intensity is 70 kt. The circulation of Celia has continued to move over increasingly cooler waters, and SHIPS guidance indicates a gradual increase in shear. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for weakening, and Celia is forecast to be a tropical depression in about 3 days or sooner. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at about 11 kt. Global models continue to show a persistent moderate subtropical ridge north of Celia. This pattern will continue to steer the cyclone on a west-northwesterly track for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, Celia should have become a shallow cyclone, and will likely move on a westward track steered by the low-level flow. The track guidance continues to be in very good agreement, and there is high confidence in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 17.4N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 18.4N 130.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 19.6N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 20.5N 135.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 21.3N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 22.5N 141.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 23.0N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 24.0N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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