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Hurricane CELIA Forecast Discussion Number 26
2016-07-13 04:36:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130236 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016 The convective cloud tops surrounding the large ragged eye of Celia have been gradually warming since earlier today. Based on subjective Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB as well as objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS, the intensity is reduced to 65 kt. Since the tropical cyclone will be moving over cooler waters, into a stabler air mass, and westerly shear is forecast to increase, a continued weakening trend is expected. Celia should weaken into a tropical depression by the time it reaches the Central Pacific Hurricane Basin. The official intensity forecast is a little below the latest model consensus and a little above the latest LGEM guidance. The large eye has been moving between west-northwest and northwest at around 10 kt. There is no reason to make any significant changes to the previous NHC forecast track. A mid-level subtropical ridge is predicted by the global models to remain to the north of the cyclone for the next several days. Celia is likely to become an increasingly shallow system, so later in the forecast period, it should turn toward the west following the low-level flow. The official forecast is close to the consensus of the dynamical guidance, which are fairly tightly clustered. This is basically an extension/update of the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 18.0N 130.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 18.9N 131.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 20.0N 133.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 21.0N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 21.9N 138.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 22.7N 142.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 23.5N 147.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 24.0N 152.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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