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Hurricane COSME Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-06-25 22:51:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252051 TCDEP3 HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED...THOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY ONLY PERIODICALLY SHOWS THIS FEATURE. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE VALUES HAVE INCREASED AND SUGGEST A RANGE OF 65 TO 77 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...COSME JOGGED BACK TO THE LEFT SOME AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ANALYZED TO BE 295/15. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. AS COSME GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED AS IT IS ADVECTED ALONG BY THE MID TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AT THE 12 AND 24 HOUR POINTS AND CLOSE TO THE TRACK THEREAFTER. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. WHILE WEAK NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OCCURRING NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION... COSME INSTEAD WILL LIKELY BE PEAKING SHORTLY IN INTENSITY DUE TO ITS TRAVERSING RAPIDLY COOLING WATERS. ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...COSME SHOULD PASS THE 26C ISOTHERM TONIGHT AND REACH SUB-22C SSTS BY THURSDAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE PEAKING SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY RATHER QUICK WEAKENING DUE TO RATHER HOSTILE THERMODYNAMICS. THE PREDICTION ANTICIPATES THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...BUT THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSEST TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE PROVIDED BY TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 17.9N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.5N 114.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 19.3N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 20.3N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 20.9N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z 22.0N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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